No doubt both candidates above are formidable in their own right, but let's look at their individual strength; *this is purely my personal analysis*. Though I would have preferred a Dakwambo or a Tambuwal, but when the desirable is not available the available becomes the desirable. *This is not about social media noise of SAI BABA but the reality on ground!*
Let's consider the following points; why Atiku has a better advantage.
1. Atiku and Buhari are both Muslims and full blooded Fulanis, so the Hausa-Fulani ethnic stock, won't be concerned on who emerges.
2. The Northern Elders forum will always go for Atiku. Recall in 2007/2011, when the Northern Elders chaired by the late Ciroma, was faced with who to choose between Atiku, Aliyu Gusau, Buhari and Saraki, they unanimously choose Atiku; check records.
3. Integrity; Atiku has integrity issues so has Buhari; Before 2015, Buhari was viewed as a saint and has cult followership, but since, he was given that opportunity, he has not been able to deliver anything meaningful. Change sermon has seriously depleted and doesn't ring bell anymore. Besides Intels, Halliburton & Siemens scandal, APC doesn't have much against Atiku.
4. The Caliphate and Emirate council have withdrawn their support from Buhari. Recall that the Sultan of Sokoto was amongst the first to congratulate Tambuwal during his defection from APC to PDP. The Emir of Kano has always been an Ally of Atiku and he has been vocal against the misgovernance of this administration. Go and Write it down, once the Sultanate and Emirate is against your ambition in the core North, just go and rest.
5. Virtually all Notable religious leader in the North is against Buhari from Sheik Gumi, El ZakZaky, etc. They have been going everywhere campaigning against Buhari, regretting while they voted against Jonathan.
6. Military Establishment from Danjuma, IBB, Abdusalam, etc are already scared that PMB will turn into full scale dictatorship if re-elected. Besides OBJ, who may reconcile with Atiku in the next coming days, they will prefer anybody but PMB.
7. APC is currently in shambles right now. Consequent upon the primaries which is still going on as I write. Aisha Buhari has cried out, Governors Yari, Bello, Amosun, Akeredolu, El Rufai, etc are threatening brimstone and fire. I don't envy Oshiomole at all. Almost all the states APC is in control are having major crisis resulting from the conduct of the primaries. Adams automatic tickets to loyal Senators has backfired. Okorocha just returned himself and his son-in-law as Senatorial and guber aspirants respectively. And so on and so forth. I see this challenges snowball into unmanageable monumental crisis.
PDP to my astonishment achieved almost 90% rancour free primaries! And they will reap abundantly from the APC crisis!
8. Atiku political foray started more than 30years ago. You can see how he earlier rejected PH as venue for the convention, but later accepted and beat Wike to his game. The reason Atiku has not won the Presidency is because he has never emerged the candidate of a major National political party; ACN then was just a regional party. *With almost a limitless and unmatchable financial war chest, he will deploy his financial arsenal, knowing this is his last shot at the Presidency* I doubt if any politician as prepared as him.
9. The average Northerner likes power so much, whether they benefit or not. They know if PMB wins he has just 4 years, but if Atiku wins he might have 8 years. *I tell you with their penchant for love of power they might tilt towards Atiku because of another 8years!*
10. Recall that Atiku inherited the late Shehu Yaradua political machinery the SDM; even in Katsina he is loved because of this relationship. Most SDM members in other political parties will work for him. The roll call includes; IBB, Orji Uzor Kalu, Tony Anenih, Kingibe, Ibori, Lamido, Aliyu, etc.
11. The business establishment like banks, conglomerates, oil majors, magnates, business moguls, captains of industries, Importers/Exporters, etc will go for Atiku any day any time, you can take that to the bank
12. Religious bodies are already frustrated with PMB; There is no major Christian denomination who supported PMB in 2015, who are still with him now. From CAN, PFN, Oyedepo, Adeboye, Lazarus Mouka, Mbaka, Paul Enenche, Sulaiman, Bakare, etc has abandoned the change project. *Atiku will win majority Christian vote and divide Muslim vote with Buhari*
13. The Academia and the Labour movement have not hidden the direction they will go in 2019; it's almost anybody but Buhari.
14. Atiku's greatest selling point has been restructuring, but PMB doesn't even talk about it. The Southern and Middle Belt leaders will mobilise support for Atiku; Ohaneze, PANDEF, Afenifere, Middle Belt Forum, etc. Take my words to the bank!
15. Atiku will sweep votes from the North East; the sentiments are rife that no North-Eastern individual has ruled this country as President before! He will whip that sentiments massively. Watch Atiku, his propaganda campaign machinery might be second to none!
16. Just like PDP propaganda machine pushed PMB to victory in 2015, I see APC making a bigger blunder than PDP on Atiku. The way and manner they have started attacking Atiku even before campaign proper will eventually, endear Atiku more to the electorates. Remember how they lost Osun in the first round of voting regardless of the avalanche of attacks against Adeleke!
17. Geopolitical zonal permutations; SS & SE is already a given for Atiku. Atiku has always been a darling of the SW, besides the fact, that his most popular wife Titi is from there. In fact in the just concluded PDP National convention, the SW voted for him en block. Afenifere has been on the fore front of restructuring. In fact Pa Adebanjo, Reuben Fasoranti and Olu Falaye have said Atiku is the only candidate to implement restructuring. Middle Belt and North Central will go for Atiku. With the likes of IBB, Abdusalami, Saraki, Ortom, Useni, Mama Taraba, Mark, Gemade, Jonah Jang, etc leading the charge. They all believe Atiku is a moderate. NE is gone because of the earlier stated sentiments. NW votes will be splited; if Kwankwanso, Tambuwal, Lamido, Datti Ahmed, Turaki, Markafi, etc all agreed to work for Atiku, PMB will win NW, but Atiku will pick serious votes there. *Recall Zamfara is almost gone with Governor Yari defection few days away*
Let me stop here before I start answering questions I don't have answers for. 🤩
2019 is very interesting; Muslim VS Muslim, Fulani VS Fulani, Former APC VS current APC, North VS North, money versus more money.
And the beat goes on...
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